Predictors of Party Patronage: A Case of the City Committee of a Serbian Parliamentary Political Entity in 2015

Sažetak

The subject of interest in this paper is empirical research on party patronage
within the City Committee of a political party in Novi Sad, Serbia. The research
design was structured by complementing the classical correlational paradigm
with the social network analysis (SNA) methodology. The research problem is
focused on the question whether party patronage can be predicted retrospectively
using sociodemographic variables and variables derived from SNA. If so, to
what extent and with what degree of precision? This is the first research to present
empirical data on party patronage amenable to inferential statistical analysis.
Although focused on a specific country, this paper lays the groundwork for future
comparative investigations by advancing new hypotheses that make substantial
contributions to the existing literature on party patronage. Descriptive statistics
reveal that approximately one in five party members is employed through patronage.
A network variable was generated, and centrality measures were calculated
based on the data concerning recruitment into the party. Independent
variables that exhibited statistically relevant associations with the indicator of
party patronage through bivariate analysis were subsequently incorporated into
a binary logistic regression model. Within this model, statistically significant B
coefficients were observed for the following predictors: the number of secure votes,
out-degree, membership in the largest component, core/periphery categorization,
age, and educational level. In contrast to the other predictors, membership in the
largest component and age demonstrate a negative association with the criterion.
The obtained results substantiate the thesis of the technocratization of party patronage. The compilation of a comprehensive registry of public sector employees,
the re-evaluation of their qualifications, and an investigation into their employment
trajectories emerge as crucial imperatives. Otherwise, Serbia is poised to
remain entrenched on the economic periphery of Europe for an extended period.